The relationship between income inequality and economic growth is complex and the
evidence mixed. This paper focuses on the connections between income inequality and the …

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define “growth
spells:” periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a …

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before
1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, …

In recent years, a number of researchers have claimed success in systematically predicting
which countries are more likely to suffer currency crises, most notably Kaminsky, Lizondo …

This survey of the recent literature asks: how important is trade policy for poverty reduction?
We consider the effects of openness on poverty in two components: the effect of openness …

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of
currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed …

This paper builds upon previous studies prepared by IMF staff on various aspects of the
exchange rate arrangements of IMF member countries, consistent with the IMF’s role of …

We investigate the relationship between inequality, redistribution, and growth using a
recently-compiled dataset that distinguishes clearly between market (pre-tax and transfer) and net (…

This paper develops a cross-country statistical model of debt rescheduling, and the secondary
market valuation of LDC debt, which links these variables to key structural characteristics …

Advances in artificial intelligence and robotics may be leading to a new industrial revolution.
This paper presents a model with the minimum necessary features to analyze the …