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Research ArticleLumbar Spine

Predictive Analytics for Determining Extended Operative Time in Corrective Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery

Peter G. Passias, Gregory W. Poorman, Dennis Vasquez-Montes, Nicholas Kummer, Gregory Mundis, Neel Anand, Samantha R. Horn, Frank A. Segreto, Lara Passfall, Oscar Krol, Bassel Diebo, Doug Burton, Aaron Buckland, Michael Gerling, Alex Soroceanu, Robert Eastlack, D. Kojo Hamilton, Robert Hart, Frank Schwab, Virginie Lafage, Christopher Shaffrey, Daniel Sciubba, Shay Bess, Christopher Ames, Eric Klineberg and On behalf of the International Spine Study Group
International Journal of Spine Surgery April 2022, 16 (2) 291-299; DOI: https://doi.org/10.14444/8174
Peter G. Passias
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
MD
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Gregory W. Poorman
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BA
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Dennis Vasquez-Montes
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
MS
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Nicholas Kummer
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BS
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Gregory Mundis
2 Department of Orthopaedics, San Diego Center for Spinal Disorders, La Jolla, CA, USA
MD
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Neel Anand
3 Department of Orthopaedics, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
MD
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Samantha R. Horn
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BA
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Frank A. Segreto
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BS
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Lara Passfall
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BS
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Oscar Krol
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
BA
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Bassel Diebo
4 Department of Orthopaedics, SUNY Downstate Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
MD
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Doug Burton
5 Department of Orthopaedics, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, KS, USA
MD
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Aaron Buckland
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
MD
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Michael Gerling
1 Department of Orthopaedics, NYU Medical Center-Orthopaedic Hospital, New York, NY, USA
MD
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Alex Soroceanu
6 Department of Orthopaedics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
MD
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Robert Eastlack
2 Department of Orthopaedics, San Diego Center for Spinal Disorders, La Jolla, CA, USA
MD
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D. Kojo Hamilton
7 Department of Neurosurgery, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
MD
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Robert Hart
8 Department of Orthopaedics, Swedish Neuroscience Institute, Seattle, WA, USA
MD
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Frank Schwab
9 Department of Orthopaedics, Hospital for Special Surgery, New York, NY, USA
MD
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Virginie Lafage
9 Department of Orthopaedics, Hospital for Special Surgery, New York, NY, USA
PhD
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Christopher Shaffrey
10 Department of Neurosurgery, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
MD
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Daniel Sciubba
11 Department of Neurologic Surgery, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
MD
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Shay Bess
12 Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Denver International Spine Center, Denver, CO, USA
MD
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Christopher Ames
13 Department of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
MD
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Eric Klineberg
14 Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA
MD
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  • Article
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Article Figures & Data

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  • Figure 1
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    Figure 1

    Distribution of operation times in the adult spinal deformity cohort (N = 544). Operative times are shown in minutes.

  • Figure 2
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    Figure 2

    Survivorship curves for intraoperative infection, cardiopulmonary, and major and minor complications, respectively.

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    Figure 3

    Kaplan-Meier curve utilizing operative time and major intraoperative complications as the status event.

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    Figure 4

    Kaplan-Meier curve utilizing operative time and minor intraoperative complications as the status event.

Tables

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    Table 1

    Summary of demographics and surgeries performed in adult spinal deformity patients.

    DemographicsN = 544
    Woman, %75.4%
    Age, y, mean58.1
    Body mass index, mean28.1
    Charlson Comorbidity Index1.6
    Smoker, %7.2%
    Previous fusion surgery, %37.0%
    Surgeries performed
     Mean number levels fused11.4
      Approach, %
       Anterior0.5%
       Posterior85.4%
       Anterior then posterior13.9%
     Three-column osteotomy49.4%
    • View popup
    Table 2

    Predictive analytics utilizing decision trees in determining significant clincial variables affecting operative time in adult spinal deformity corrective surgery.

    Significant Clinical Variables Affecting Operative Time
    Overall RankVariable NameGroups ComparedDifferenceP Value
    Global
     01Surgery siteCenters a,b vs centers c-fCenters c-f vs centers g-j120.90642.6560.0000.000
    Procedural
     02ApproachComb. vs post.139.0340.000
     03Levels fused≤4 vs 5–95–9 vs 10+68.20747.6130.0140.000
     04Interbody device0 vs <044.7100.000
     11Number of pedicle screw osteotomies≥1 vs 032.8580.027
     08Number of 3-column osteotomies used≥1 vs 035.2690.005
     09Decompression technique usedDecmp. vs none48.6510.000
    Patient Characteristics
     05Frailty index< 1.5 vs ≥ 1.578.3750.000
     06Charlson Comorbidity Index0 vs <066.0540.000
     07Scoliosis Research Scoiety-22-Schwab Global Alignment0 vs ++ vs ++30.19634.9630.0250.016
     10Scoliosis Research Society-Schwab PI-LL0 vs (+ & ++)46.1640.000
     14Body mass index<25 vs 25–3025–30 vs ≥3034.38229.8540.0070.027
    Intraoperative Complications
     12Minor≥1 vs 066.5200.001
     13Major≥1 vs 066.5520.001
    • View popup
    Table 3

    Spearman correlations determining significant correlations between clinical variables and operative time in adult spinal deformity surgical patients.

    Correlation Between Clinical Variables and Operative Time
    VariablePrediction Accuracy (Spearman Coefficient)Significance (2-Tailed)
    EBL0.331<0.001
    LOS0.263<0.001
    2-y ODI0.1410.015
    2-y SRS-22−0.0690.232
    2-y EQ-5D−0.0230.808
    • EBL, estimated intraoperative blood loss; EQ-5D, EuroQol 5-dimensional; LOS, hospital length of stay; ODI, Oswestry Disability Index; SRS, Scoliosis Research Society-22.

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Predictive Analytics for Determining Extended Operative Time in Corrective Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery
Peter G. Passias, Gregory W. Poorman, Dennis Vasquez-Montes, Nicholas Kummer, Gregory Mundis, Neel Anand, Samantha R. Horn, Frank A. Segreto, Lara Passfall, Oscar Krol, Bassel Diebo, Doug Burton, Aaron Buckland, Michael Gerling, Alex Soroceanu, Robert Eastlack, D. Kojo Hamilton, Robert Hart, Frank Schwab, Virginie Lafage, Christopher Shaffrey, Daniel Sciubba, Shay Bess, Christopher Ames, Eric Klineberg, On behalf of the International Spine Study Group
International Journal of Spine Surgery Apr 2022, 16 (2) 291-299; DOI: 10.14444/8174

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Predictive Analytics for Determining Extended Operative Time in Corrective Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery
Peter G. Passias, Gregory W. Poorman, Dennis Vasquez-Montes, Nicholas Kummer, Gregory Mundis, Neel Anand, Samantha R. Horn, Frank A. Segreto, Lara Passfall, Oscar Krol, Bassel Diebo, Doug Burton, Aaron Buckland, Michael Gerling, Alex Soroceanu, Robert Eastlack, D. Kojo Hamilton, Robert Hart, Frank Schwab, Virginie Lafage, Christopher Shaffrey, Daniel Sciubba, Shay Bess, Christopher Ames, Eric Klineberg, On behalf of the International Spine Study Group
International Journal of Spine Surgery Apr 2022, 16 (2) 291-299; DOI: 10.14444/8174
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